The Politics of Resource Allocation in the U.S. Department of Defense: International Crises and Domestic Constraints by Alex Mintz

Author:Alex Mintz [Mintz, Alex]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Technology & Engineering, Political Science, Political Freedom, Security (National & International), Military Science
ISBN: 9780367310660
Google: WwNpzgEACAAJ
Goodreads: 57864894
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2021-05-31T00:00:00+00:00

TABLE 4.3 INTERNATIONAL FORCES INFLUENCING DEVIATIONS FROM INCREMENTAL DEFENSE BUDGETING: HYPOTHESES

maximized and the relative contribution of each variable to the explanation of the set of dependent variables can be assessed. Since the fair share model consists (by definition) of interrelated shares of the budget (i.e., an increase in the share of the military personnel outlays of the total budget necessarily decreases the shares of the other components of the budget), canonical correlational analysis is a very useful tool for analyzing resource allocation problems and deviations from perfect constant allocations. The important statistics for the interpretations of the statistical results are the canonical eigenvalue (the percent of the variance explained by the model), the canonical correlation coefficient and the chi-square statistic (which are measures of the statistical significance of the relations among the canonical variates) and the matrix of standardized canonical weights, which indicates the statistical contribution of the variables to the multivariate model.

The impact of the political-economic variables on the fair share DoD allocation method (see Chapter 3) can be formulated as follows:

(5)

where

Cxit/TDt = the share of a component i of the total budget

Y1*.. .Y5* = the political-economic variables as described above

aij = the standardized canonical weights of the DoD shares

dij = the standardized canonical weights of the explanatory variables

The effects of international factors upon DoD allocations can be similarly formulated:

(6)

where all the notations are as before. Finally, the combined effect of the domestic (political-economic) and international (the arms race and war) factors upon DoD allocation can be formulated:

(7)

where ali the notations are as above.

The impact of domestic forces upon DoD allocations is hypothesized to be the following: Military personnel outlays are expected to receive a larger than normal share of the budget during election years, during periods of growing unemployment and during Democratic Administrations (see Table 4.4), while the share of procurement outlays of the DoD budget is hypothesized to increase during Republican Administrations, in relation to corporate profits and as a positive function of public support for defense spending. The proportion of operations and maintenance outlays of the total budget is expected to grow disproportionately during periods of growing unemployment and Democractic Administrations (see Table 4.4), while the share of RDT&E expenditures is a function of corporate profits and Republican Administrations. These hypotheses are summarized in Table 4.4.

In respect to the impact of international forces upon DoD allocations, the share of personnel programs in the budget is hypothesized to be a positive function of wars and crises and a negative function of postwar budgets. The proportion of RDT&E outlays is expected to decrease during wars, and when the military gap is maintained and to increase after wars and crises. The share of procurement programs is hypothesized to be a positive function of wars and crises and a negative function of the military gap and postwar budgets. Finally, the proportion of O&M outlays is expected to be a negative function of wars and the military gap and a positive function of crises and postwar expenses. These hypotheses are summarized in Table 4.

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